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6h ago

Iran Unrest and U.S. Tariff Threat Lift Oil to Two-Month High

A renewed geopolitical premium from Iran protests is lifting benchmarks, with expected Venezuelan exports seen limiting further upside.

A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer
A drone view shows oil tankers loading crude oil at the Basra Oil Terminal in Iraqi territorial waters, off the coast of Basra, Iraq, August 5, 2025. REUTERS/Mohammed Aty
A drone view of a pump jack and drilling rig south of Midland, Texas, U.S. June 11, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
A shop owner counts Iranian banknotes at a store in the capital Tehran on January 7, 2026.

Overview

  • Brent traded near $64.15 and WTI around $59.78 early Tuesday, hovering at the strongest levels since early December.
  • President Donald Trump warned of a 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran and is set to meet senior advisers on Tuesday to discuss options.
  • Barclays estimates oil now carries a $3–$4 per barrel risk premium tied to Iran, while ANZ says as much as 1.9 million barrels per day of Iranian exports could be vulnerable.
  • The U.S. signaled control of up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned Venezuelan crude, with trading houses such as Trafigura preparing to load the first cargoes within days.
  • Goldman Sachs projects a 2.3 million bpd surplus in 2026 and average Brent/WTI at $56/$52, a backdrop that may cap rallies even as Russia’s attacks on Ukraine add episodic supply risk.