Overview
- Crude jumped about 3% Tuesday, with WTI near $61 and Brent around $66, after President Trump canceled meetings with Iranian officials and told protesters that U.S. help is coming.
- Trump also threatened a 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran, a move traders say increases the risk to Iranian exports even without confirmed supply losses.
- The WTI discount to Brent widened to about $4.76 a barrel, the largest since April, as up to roughly 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude are expected to be redirected to U.S. ports.
- Trading houses including Trafigura are preparing initial Venezuelan loadings within days, a shift that supports U.S. supply and helps cap the rally in futures.
- Analysts estimate a $3–$4 per barrel geopolitical premium from Iran unrest, while Goldman Sachs reiterates a sizable 2026 surplus and lower average prices, even as Russia’s strikes and reported drone hits on Greek‑managed tankers add to volatility.