Overview
- Iran’s nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami told state media that the country remains in a wartime condition and that key nuclear sites are not secured for IAEA inspections.
- The IAEA has been unable to verify conditions at core facilities that were damaged in prior strikes, with Isfahan, Fordow and Natanz repeatedly identified as off-limits.
- Some unaffected facilities such as Bushehr have allowed limited checks, but broad access to the main sites remains blocked and no standard inspection protocol has been agreed.
- Prediction markets priced by Vera show near-term odds of visits collapsed to about 0.4% for inspections by August 31 and only rise to roughly 13% by December 31, reflecting low expectations for a quick breakthrough.
- The access impasse traces to U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025–2026 and could change only if sites are secured, a formal inspection protocol is set, or diplomats or the UN Security Council broker a deal, with delayed inspections likely to raise regional tensions and keep oversight limited.