Overview

• A fragile ceasefire took effect on June 23, ending 12 days of Israeli airstrikes on nuclear and military targets and Iranian missile and drone reprisals.
• The US carried out direct strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites on June 22, marking its first military engagement in the conflict.
• Authorities have launched a nationwide security operation with mass arrests, executions and IRGC deployments in restive regions such as the Kurdish areas.
• Exiled leaders including Reza Pahlavi and the Mujahedeen Khalq have renewed calls for regime change, though analysts say deep ideological roots and a fragmented opposition curb their influence.
• Experts warn that any succession crisis or vacuum in Tehran could deepen internal instability and threaten to spill over across the region.