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Iran Crypto Outflows Jump After Strikes as Analysts Split on Capital Flight

Near‑instant withdrawals from Nobitex were traced to overseas exchanges, with a near‑total internet blackout plus platform outages complicating the picture.

Overview

  • Elliptic reported a 700% surge in withdrawals from Nobitex within minutes of the first U.S.–Israeli strikes on Tehran, with early tracing pointing to transfers headed to foreign exchanges.
  • Chainalysis quantified roughly $10.3 million in outflows from Iranian platforms between February 28 and March 2, with hourly withdrawals spiking to around $2 million soon after news of the attacks.
  • TRM Labs said on‑chain patterns reflected access constraints rather than a mass exit, citing an estimated 99% drop in Iran’s internet connectivity and a broad downturn in transactions and volume.
  • Nobitex and other domestic exchanges experienced outages, and Arkham Intelligence flagged halted outbound activity on Nobitex’s Ethereum address even as some activity persisted on other networks.
  • Nobitex’s central role in Iran’s crypto market—about $7.2 billion in 2025 volume and more than 11 million users—has made its outflows a focal data point while analysts continue tracing funds to clarify intent.