Overview
- A U.S. official said Friday there is progress between Iran and Oman toward an agreement and that Washington would lift its blockade once commercial shipping is restored without impediments.
- Reported drafts would route inbound vessels through waters controlled by Iran and outbound vessels near Oman, but the text still needs senior approval in Tehran and formal U.S. acceptance.
- Tehran is pressing to exclude vessels linked to the United States and Israel and to seek compensation or transit fees in the 3–7% range, demands the United States rejects as inconsistent with toll-free international transit.
- Maritime traffic remains at a fraction of normal levels, with Kpler reporting single-digit daily transits, and the collapse of a June 17 memorandum shows how fragile past arrangements have been.
- Deep political splits inside Iran, state media rhetoric and the need for clear, verifiable performance by Tehran make implementation uncertain and keep global oil prices and regional stability at risk.