Overview
- Yahya Rahim Safavi, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said in a video released Thursday that the conflict could extend from the Gulf and Red Sea into the Indian Ocean if the United States launches another attack.
- Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said earlier this week it could change its weapons, tactics and targets in response to further U.S. provocation, a statement that raises the risk of new forms of maritime or long‑range attacks.
- Commercial traffic through key chokepoints has already fallen sharply, with Reuters reporting only 17 commodity vessels through the Strait of Hormuz over one recent weekend compared with a pre‑war daily average near 125.
- Markets have reacted: Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel and shipping and insurance costs have climbed, which will raise import bills for energy‑dependent countries such as India.
- The Iranian statements give public deterrent and bargaining signals rather than operational details, and Tehran has repeated that lifting sanctions and freeing frozen assets are its conditions for ending the wider conflict.