IOF Windfall Poised to Top Government Forecast for 2025, Bolstering Brazil’s Fiscal Plan

Overview

• Receita Federal data show R$8.66 billion was collected through September specifically from the IOF rate increases enacted at the end of May.
• At the current pace, economists estimate the 2025 impact could reach R$15.1 billion to R$16 billion, up to 39% above the Fisco’s R$11.5 billion projection.
• O Globo reports overall IOF intake in 2025 is up 15% year over year, with R$37 billion collected since the May change as part of more than R$60 billion raised this year.
• Receita cites stronger activity in corporate credit and foreign-exchange outflows and notes it cannot fully isolate how much of the rise stems from the decree versus broader economic factors.
• The decree that raised IOF rates was restored by the Supreme Federal Court after Congress sought to overturn it, and specialists say the revenue boost helps near-term fiscal targets but leaves 2026 uncertain.