Overview
- President Trump's imminent Fed chair selection arrives with open pressure for rate cuts, raising the risk of policy over‑easing that markets fear could reignite inflation.
- A pending Supreme Court decision on emergency tariff authority may reshape unilateral levies and create refund complications for importers, introducing a near‑term policy shock risk.
- Strategists expect investors to look beyond mega‑cap tech, with small caps, banks, healthcare and gold singled out for 2026, including bank forecasts that gold could approach $5,000 an ounce.
- Economists project unusually large tax refunds from the new law to inject roughly $30 billion to $100 billion into households in the first half, providing a short‑lived boost alongside new business expensing.
- The macro picture looks resilient but fragile, with AI‑driven gains and valuation concentration set against softer job growth and stickier inflation flagged by forecasters such as Moody’s Mark Zandi.