Particle.news
Download on the App Store
3 ARTICLES
·
19h ago

Investors Hold High Odds on September Rate Cut Despite Inflation Surge

The Fed faces conflicting signals from stubborn inflation paired with sluggish payroll gains as it prepares for Jackson Hole guidance

Image
Image
Image

Overview

  • July’s Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% year-over-year and the Producer Price Index climbed roughly a percentage point to about 3–3.3%, its highest level in three years.
  • Revisions cut about 258,000 jobs from May and June gains and the three-month average of new hires slid to approximately 35,000, underscoring labor-market softening.
  • Investors now assign roughly an 85% probability to a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
  • Economists caution that broad-based services inflation driven by rising wages and energy costs may compel the Fed to hold off on easing.
  • All eyes are on Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole address for clues on how the Fed will navigate its dual mandate given conflicting price and employment data.