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Investor Confidence Plummets as Trump’s Tariffs Reshape Global Economic Outlook

Survey data reveals record pessimism among fund managers, with fears of stagflation, recession, and declining U.S. equity investments.

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Data: Bank of America Fund Manager Survey; Chart: Axios Visuals

Overview

  • The Bank of America Fund Manager Survey shows sentiment at its fifth lowest point on record, worse than during the 2020 pandemic crash.
  • Nearly half of fund managers predict a 'hard landing' for the global economy, with growth expectations at a 30-year low.
  • Ninety percent of surveyed investors anticipate stagflation—rising prices paired with slowing growth—within the next 12 months.
  • U.S. equity underweights reached their highest level since the survey began in 2001, reflecting a sharp decline in investor confidence.
  • The WTO downgraded its global trade forecast from growth to decline, while S&P analysts warn of a 700,000-unit drop in U.S. auto sales due to tariffs.