Overview

• Investec moved Lupin to Buy from Hold and lifted the price target to Rs 2,348, with the stock up roughly 3% intraday on the call.
• EBITDA forecasts were raised by 23% for FY26 and 10% for FY27 on a more optimistic view of the US business.
• Key US products such as Spiriva, gGle and gFro underpin the revised view alongside sustained double-digit growth in India.
• The thesis leans on complex generics, biosimilars and injectables—including glucagon, Risperidone ER injectable, liraglutide and ganirelix—with Investec expecting an India semaglutide generic opportunity next year and broader weight-loss offerings to support share gains.
• Investec’s base case projects a strong FY26, moderation in FY27 and EPS growth resuming in FY28, with current valuations described as reasonable after recent weakness.