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Invest 92L Off Northeast Florida Holds 60% Chance to Become Tropical Storm Chantal

Reconnaissance flights are gathering data to refine forecasts of widespread flooding from Florida to the coastal Carolinas ahead of the system’s expected landfall early Sunday.

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An image created by AccuWeather shows the possible path for Tropical Storm Chantal once it forms.
The tropical outlook as of 8 a.m. Friday, July 4, 2025. (NHC)

Overview

  • The National Hurricane Center maintains a 60% probability of Invest 92L developing into a tropical storm within 48 hours as it drifts northward.
  • An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to probe the low-pressure system Friday to update intensity and track models.
  • Marginal wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures may support a brief tropical or subtropical depression forming late Friday or Saturday.
  • Forecasters warn heavy rainfall and flash flooding from west-central Florida through coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning Saturday regardless of cyclone formation.
  • Landfall is projected along the southeastern U.S. coast Saturday night or early Sunday without the system reaching hurricane strength due to its proximity to land.