Intuit Share Drop Splits Wall Street Over AI Risks and Deep‑Value Case

Overview

• The stock has plunged from its highs and is trading around $300 with a forward P/E near 10.9, a level many investors call a deep-value opportunity.
• Most analysts remain bullish with a median price target near $446, but a smaller group has issued sharp downgrades that cut targets into the $200s.
• Company actions include a multi‑thousand job reduction and office consolidations that will incur roughly $300–$340 million in charges as management shifts toward higher‑margin, assisted‑tax offerings.
• Intuit points to strong operating performance — TurboTax Live growing about 36% and representing over half of consumer tax revenue, Online Ecosystem growth near 19%, operating margins around 40% and free cash flow margins near 35% — as the basis for the bullish case.
• The debate now centers on execution: whether multi‑year AI partnerships and cost cuts can fend off heightened tax competition and potential downward revisions to growth estimates, and how that outcome will affect cash generation and the dividend.