Overview

• An internal GrayHouse survey of likely 2026 voters shows Hochul leading Stefanik 48% to 43% on an initial ballot, then trailing 46.4% to 45.9% after respondents hear candidate records including Hochul’s endorsement of Zohran Mamdani.
• The poll, paid for by Stefanik’s E‑PAC, sampled 1,250 likely voters from Sept. 20–26 and reported a margin of error of about 2.6%.
• Findings point to softness in the incumbent’s standing, with 59% saying it is time for someone else and job ratings at roughly 39% approval and 56% disapproval.
• The memo flags potential down‑ballot effects from the New York City mayoral race, with 47% of independents saying a Mamdani victory would make them less likely to vote for a Democrat for governor.
• The internal results contrast with earlier independent polling, including a Siena survey in September that showed Hochul ahead 52% to 27%, as Stefanik’s team cites the new numbers to argue the governor is vulnerable.