Overview

• The GrayHouse poll shows Gov. Kathy Hochul leading Rep. Elise Stefanik 48% to 43% on an initial ballot test.
• In an informed ballot that includes Hochul’s endorsement of Zohran Mamdani and other record items, Stefanik edges ahead 46.4% to 45.9%.
• The survey highlights vulnerability for the incumbent, with 59% saying it is time for someone new and a 56% to 39% negative job rating.
• Among independents, 47% say they would be less likely to vote for Democrats if Mamdani wins the New York City mayoralty.
• Conducted Sept. 20–26 among 1,250 likely voters with a 2.6% margin of error, the poll was paid for by Stefanik’s E‑PAC, a sponsorship that provides important context for interpreting the results.