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17h ago

Internal GOP Poll Shows Hochul’s Lead Over Stefanik Shrinks to Five Points in New York

The findings come from a Stefanik-commissioned survey that diverges from recent independent polls.

Elise Stefanik, questions Kathy Hochul during a House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform hearing, Thursday, June 12, 2025, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington.
A new poll commissioned by U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik's PAC found that Gov. Kathy Hochul only holds a 5-point lead over the likely Republican candidate.
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Elise Stefanik has Kathy Hochujl running scared.

Overview

  • GrayHouse surveyed 1,250 likely 2026 voters Sept. 20–26 and reported Hochul leading Stefanik 48% to 43% with a 2.6% margin of error.
  • After respondents heard about each candidate’s record, including Hochul’s endorsement of NYC mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, the poll’s informed ballot flipped narrowly to Stefanik 46.4% to 45.9%.
  • The internal memo cites weak metrics for the governor, including roughly 39% approval, about 56% disapproval, and 59% saying it is time for a new governor.
  • The poll reports potential spillover from the mayoral race, with 47% of independents saying a Mamdani win would make them less likely to vote for Democrats in 2026.
  • Results contrast sharply with a Siena poll in September showing Hochul up 25 points, and Hochul’s campaign criticized the GrayHouse survey’s sponsor and transparency as Stefanik is still expected to formalize a run.