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Intel’s 2025 Rally Tested by Bank of America Downgrade

Investors now look for proof that headline deals will convert into operational gains.

Overview

  • Bank of America cut Intel to Underperform with a $34 price target, arguing the stock has run too far, too fast and citing a challenged outlook without a clear AI accelerator strategy and with an uncompetitive server CPU.
  • Intel shares fell more than 4% on Tuesday yet remain up close to 80% in 2025, reflecting a sharp re-rating that analysts warn is disconnected from fundamentals.
  • HSBC downgraded Intel to Reduce on Oct. 8 with a $24 target, saying the surge was driven by deals rather than lasting improvements and stressing that a turnaround depends on fixing foundry execution.
  • Recent sentiment boosters include reported investments by the U.S. government (about $11.1 billion for a 9.9% stake), Nvidia (about $5 billion), and SoftBank ($2 billion), which analysts say lifted the stock without confirming durable customer wins.
  • Bernstein kept a Market Perform rating after a report of early talks to add AMD as a foundry customer, noting details are scarce and a deal is uncertain, while analysts broadly seek concrete manufacturing commitments and measurable progress.