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Intel Faces Q4 Earnings Test as Analyst Upgrades Collide With Capacity Concerns

Wall Street focuses on guidance for margins, capacity, foundry progress.

Overview

  • Intel reports fourth-quarter 2025 results after the close on Thursday, January 22, with consensus at $0.08 EPS and $13.40 billion in revenue.
  • Shares trade near 52-week highs after a strong 2025 rally, while the stock carries a Hold consensus and an average price target near $43.37.
  • Analyst moves include KeyBanc to Overweight with a $60 target, Citi to Neutral with a $50 target, Jefferies Hold at $45, RBC Sector Perform at $50, and target raises from UBS and Barclays.
  • Jefferies flags supply limits and ramp-related margin pressure, with gross margin projected below 36% as Lunar Lake and 18A scale.
  • Intel targets roughly 70% in-house Panther Lake production by Q1 2026, with KeyBanc reporting 18A yields above 60% and suggesting potential Apple interest on 18A that remains unconfirmed.