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Integrated AI Models Sharpen CKD-to-ESRD Predictions, CMU Study Finds

The peer-reviewed analysis covers more than 10,000 patients from 2009 to 2018.

Overview

  • Researchers linked clinical electronic records with insurance claims to train machine learning and deep learning models that outperformed single-source approaches.
  • Explainable AI techniques supported interpretability of predictions and helped address bias for potential clinical decision support.
  • A 24-month observation window provided the strongest balance between early detection and accuracy when forecasting progression to end-stage renal disease.
  • Adopting the 2021 eGFR equation improved predictive accuracy and reduced racial bias, with gains reported for African American patients.
  • The team emphasized limits from single-institution data and EHR biases and urged external validation before wider clinical use.