Overview

• By 2040, those aged 65 and older are projected to make up 26–28% of France’s population, driving the dependency ratio to nearly 50%.
• If current policies persist, public debt could climb to 150% of GDP with annual interest payments exceeding €200 billion.
• Demographic ageing and sharply falling birth rates are forecast to deepen productivity stagnation and constrain long-term economic growth.
• The study cautions that more frequent droughts and extreme rainfall will disrupt key sectors such as viticulture, threatening agricultural stability.
• Institut Montaigne criticizes the ‘en silo’ approach to policymaking and calls for holistic, cross-sector reforms to safeguard France’s social and economic resilience.