Overview
- The dependent‑senior population is projected to rise about 36% from 2.03 million in 2021 to around 2.8 million, with a peak around 2050–2052 before a slight decline toward the 2070s.
- Growth is expected to be strong through the early 2030s as baby‑boomers pass age 75, then shift toward more severe loss of autonomy into the 2030s–2050s.
- If age‑ and autonomy‑specific admission rates hold, about 1 million older people would live in institutions in 2050, requiring 56% more Ehpad capacity than in 2021.
- The study estimates the sector will need to recruit roughly 800,000 workers over the next 25 years to meet care and housing needs.
- Impacts would vary widely by area, with larger future increases forecast in western France, Île‑de‑France outside Paris, and the overseas departments.