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4w ago

Insee Lifts France’s 2025 Growth Forecast to 0.8% as Recovery Remains Uneven

The upgrade reflects a firmer second quarter with gains concentrated in tourism, aeronautics and agriculture.

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Pouvoir d’achat toujours positif et inflation en baisse n'ont pas suffi à relancer la consommation.
«Les retraites continueraient d’augmenter deux fois plus vite que les revenus d’activité», relève notamment Dorian Roucher, chef du département conjoncture à l’Insee. (photo d’illustration)
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Overview

  • Insee now projects 0.8% GDP growth in 2025, leaving France trailing the euro area’s roughly 1.4% pace and well below Spain’s 2.7%.
  • Output rose 0.3% in the second quarter after 0.1% in the first, with Insee expecting 0.3% in the third quarter and 0.2% in the fourth as industry and inbound tourism support activity.
  • Consumer confidence stands at 87 and the household saving rate reached 18.9% in spring, pointing to tepid 2025 consumption growth of about 0.5% despite inflation near 1%.
  • Household purchasing power is seen slipping by 0.1% in the third quarter and 0.7% in the fourth, reflecting the tax calendar including the exceptional contribution on high incomes, a rebound in income tax and a higher withholding rate, with pensions driving most gains earlier in the year.
  • The jobless rate is expected to edge up to about 7.6% by year-end, and Insee estimates the reduction in apprenticeship hiring bonuses will result in roughly 65,000 fewer jobs in 2025.