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Inflation Slows Slightly in February but Tariffs Threaten Further Progress

Economists warn that President Trump's escalating trade war may keep inflation elevated and increase recession risks.

People shop in a supermarket as rising inflation affects consumer prices in Los Angeles, California, U.S., June 13, 2022. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
Eggs represent a small share of the overall Consumer Price Index, at 0.15%, but they can have an outsized impact with a large increase.
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Overview

  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a year-over-year increase of 2.9% in February, down slightly from January's 3% rise.
  • President Trump's new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, along with threats of additional duties, are raising concerns about prolonged inflationary pressures.
  • Economists predict limited progress toward the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target due to the economic uncertainty created by the trade war.
  • The stock market has declined, and consumer confidence has dropped, with recession fears growing as businesses and households adjust to higher costs.
  • Federal Reserve officials are expected to hold interest rates steady next week, balancing inflation risks and potential economic slowdown.