Overview

• Consumer prices increased 0.4% in August and 2.9% from a year earlier, with core inflation up 0.3% month over month and 3.1% annually as retailers and economists cite tariff pass‑through in goods categories.
• Initial jobless claims rose to about 263,000, the highest in nearly four years, reinforcing signs of cooling employment after a benchmark revision showed 911,000 fewer jobs in the year through March.
• Futures fully price a 25‑basis‑point cut at the Sept. 16–17 Federal Reserve meeting and roughly 70 basis points of easing by year‑end, though some traders still discuss the possibility of a larger first move.
• U.S. indexes closed at record highs and Asian shares rallied on expectations of easier policy, while Treasury yields and the dollar were little changed following the latest inflation report.
• The IMF said strains are emerging in the U.S. economy and warned tariffs pose upside inflation risks, as the Labor Department’s inspector general opened a review of BLS data practices after large payroll revisions.