Overview
- Headline CPI rose 0.3% in September and 3.0% over the year, with core up 0.2% month over month and 3.0% year over year, all slightly below consensus.
- Gasoline jumped 4.1% on the month, shelter rose 0.2%, new vehicles increased 0.8%, and used cars fell 0.4%, pointing to mixed underlying price pressures.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics recalled staff to publish the report so the Social Security Administration can set the 2026 cost‑of‑living adjustment.
- Markets kept pricing a 25‑basis‑point Fed cut on Oct. 28–29, with stock futures rising and Treasury yields edging lower after the softer‑than‑expected print.
- Economists cite ongoing tariff pass‑through as a driver of goods inflation, while a prolonged shutdown threatens the timeliness and quality of upcoming official data.