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Inflation Ran Hot Before Iran Energy Shock, Raising Stakes for March CPI

Higher fuel costs now threaten to lift prices for travel, food and other services, keeping rate cuts on hold.

Overview

  • The Commerce Department reported Thursday that the PCE price index rose 0.4% in February, with headline inflation at 2.8% and core at 3.0%.
  • Consumer spending increased 0.5% in February while personal income fell by $18.2 billion, pushing the saving rate down to 4.0%.
  • After the Iran war sent energy markets higher in March, U.S. gasoline averaged just over $4 a gallon and analysts flagged the biggest one-month fuel jump in decades.
  • Economists now forecast Friday’s CPI to rise about 0.9% from February to roughly 3.3%–3.4% year over year, with early spillovers expected in airfares and shipping.
  • Fed minutes from the March 17–18 meeting showed some policymakers weighing future rate hikes, and investors see rate cuts as unlikely in the near term.