Overview
- The Commerce Department reported Thursday that the PCE price index rose 0.4% in February, with headline inflation at 2.8% and core at 3.0%.
- Consumer spending increased 0.5% in February while personal income fell by $18.2 billion, pushing the saving rate down to 4.0%.
- After the Iran war sent energy markets higher in March, U.S. gasoline averaged just over $4 a gallon and analysts flagged the biggest one-month fuel jump in decades.
- Economists now forecast Friday’s CPI to rise about 0.9% from February to roughly 3.3%–3.4% year over year, with early spillovers expected in airfares and shipping.
- Fed minutes from the March 17–18 meeting showed some policymakers weighing future rate hikes, and investors see rate cuts as unlikely in the near term.