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Inflation Holds at 1.9% as Peso Nears Ceiling and Rates Fall

Investors remain wary with risk premium above 1,000 basis points.

Overview

  • INDEC reported August CPI at 1.9% month-on-month and 33.6% year-on-year, while core inflation accelerated to 2.0%.
  • The official wholesale dollar climbed to record highs above ARS 1,400 and is now within roughly 3–4% of the band’s upper limit.
  • The Central Bank compressed its taker rate to 35% over successive days, and banks’ 30‑day deposit rates edged up on average, with several increases and one notable cut.
  • The Treasury rolled over about ARS 6.63 trillion, achieving roughly a 91% renewal in its first post‑election auction at still‑elevated, slightly lower yields.
  • Local assets saw intermittent rebounds, yet sovereign risk stayed above 1,000 bps, and most analysts keep 2025 inflation forecasts near 28–30% with some expecting September to top 2%.