Overview

• Banco Central’s Focus survey trimmed the 2025 IPCA median to 4.81% and 2026 to 4.28%, kept year-end Selic at 15%, and nudged the year-end dollar call to R$5.48 as 2025 GDP stayed at 2.16%.
• BC’s Firmus poll of companies showed 2025 IPCA expectations falling to 5.0% and a median GDP growth projection of 1.9% for 2026, signaling subdued activity ahead.
• Retailer sentiment deteriorated sharply as the CNC’s Icec slid 5% to 97.2, its lowest since May 2021, with analysts citing high borrowing costs and weaker credit as key drags.
• FGV confidence gauges ticked up in September, with services rising 1.9 points to 89.0 and commerce up 1.6 to 84.7, but economists stressed pessimism persists at low levels.
• FGV’s IGP-M rose 0.42% in September, up 2.82% in 12 months and down 0.94% in the year, underscoring differing price dynamics versus easing CPI expectations.