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2d ago

Inflation Edges to 3% on Delayed CPI, Putting Focus on Fed as Shutdown Threatens Next Report

With most data frozen by the shutdown, the September reading becomes the Fed’s primary guide for upcoming rate decisions.

Friday’s inflation report for September is this month's only official look at the U.S. economy amid the federal shutdown.
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A shopper looks at a sales advertisement at a grocery store.

Overview

  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported consumer prices rose 0.3% in September and 3.0% from a year earlier, with gasoline up 4.1% and core inflation near 3.0%.
  • The release was postponed by furloughs, and the White House recalled staff to publish it so Social Security could set a 2.8% cost‑of‑living adjustment for 2026.
  • The White House framed the print as cooler than expected and warned an October CPI may not be released, while fact‑checkers noted grocery prices increased again.
  • Economists link some price pressures to new tariffs and tighter immigration enforcement, citing gains in tariff‑exposed categories and sharp increases such as coffee up about 19% over the year.
  • Markets and forecasters say the report strengthens expectations for Fed rate cuts at the upcoming meeting, even as inflation stays above the 2% target.