Overview
- The Commerce Department reported on Sept. 30 that August PCE inflation rose 0.3% from July, leaving 12-month headline PCE at 3.4% and core PCE at 3.0%.
- The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points in mid‑September to a 3.75%–4.00% range and officials have said another hike this year remains possible.
- The Conference Board said consumer confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, the lowest reading since April 2014, with many survey write‑ins blaming higher fuel and goods prices.
- Despite weak sentiment, the BEA showed resilient demand: personal consumption rose 0.9% in August and second‑quarter GDP was revised up to a 2.2% annualized pace.
- Higher borrowing costs have pushed 30‑year mortgage rates above 7%, raised the share of five‑year adjustable‑rate mortgage applications to about 9.8%, and worsened housing affordability while lending standards remain tighter than before 2007.