Overview

• The 2026 package proposes lifting the ad valorem IEPS on manufactured tobacco by more than 30%, adding roughly 20 pesos per pack in 2026, phasing the specific quota up to 1.1584 pesos per cigarette by 2030, and imposing a 200% levy on other nicotine products.
• Conainta, which represents Philip Morris México, British American Tobacco and Japan Tobacco International, says the price jump could push illicit cigarettes to about half the market and make criminal groups key suppliers, hurting expected revenue.
• Cited evidence includes an INSP finding that illicit cigarette consumption rose from 8.5% to 20.4% between 2017 and 2023, Concamin’s estimate of 13,000–15,000 million pesos in annual fiscal losses, and a drop in tobacco IEPS receipts from 50.4 to 46.9 billion pesos in 2024.
• The government frames the hikes as health measures that would channel proceeds to a health fund, while the package also raises the IEPS on sweetened beverages from 1.64 to 3.08 pesos per liter, an increase of about 87%.
• Civil society groups argue the rates remain below international recommendations and urge higher, more specific taxes with stronger enforcement, while industry and small‑retailer groups warn of broader economic fallout.