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Industrial Output Edges Up Interannually Yet Stalls Month to Month

Recovery gains built on a low 2024 base risk reversal under high borrowing costs compounded by surging imports.

Overview

  • National capacity utilization rose to 58.8% in June from 54.5% a year earlier but gained just two-tenths of a point from May, indicating flat month-to-month activity.
  • Manufacturing output climbed 9.3% year-on-year in June and was projected to grow 2.8% in July, yet first-half production remains about 10% below the same period of 2023.
  • Only milling, oil refining and motorcycle manufacturing have returned to pre-2023 output levels, while most branches continue to lag behind.
  • Imports of consumer goods jumped 32% in the first half of the year and courier shipments soared 42%, intensifying pressure on domestic producers.
  • Industry associations warn that high interest rates, costly financing and recent institutional changes threaten to stall the fragile recovery.