Overview

• September is the first full month under 50% U.S. duties on many Indian goods, and GTRI expects deeper declines in textiles, gems and jewellery, shrimp, chemicals and solar panels.
• Between May and August, merchandise exports to the U.S. fell 22.2% from $8.8 billion to $6.9 billion as tariffs rose in stages from 10% to 25% and then 50%.
• Tariff‑free shipments contracted 41.9% to $1.96 billion, with smartphone exports plunging 58% to $964.8 million despite facing no duty.
• Category C goods, which make up 62.7% of India’s U.S.-bound shipments, declined 10.8% to $4.30 billion under the steepest tariff disadvantages.
• Exporter groups are seeking rapid relief through interest subsidies, faster duty remission and liquidity support as the government weighs mitigation and negotiation options.