Overview

• Crisil Ratings forecasts gross sugar production of about 35 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season, marking a 15 percent increase from the previous year.
• Diversion of sugar for ethanol is expected to climb to around 4 million tonnes under the government’s 20 percent blending mandate.
• Mill operating margins are projected to recover to 9–9.5 percent, bolstered by improved supplies and enhanced ethanol churn.
• Domestic sugar prices have remained range-bound at ₹35–38 per kilogram and exports are likely to stay near one million tonnes with two months of opening inventory.
• Key uncertainties include uneven monsoon distribution, the timing of ethanol price revisions and clarity on export policy.