Overview
- The India Meteorological Department closed the June–September monsoon on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, reporting 759.4 mm of rain, roughly 87% of the long-period average and a national shortfall of about 12.6–13%.
- The season ranked as the fourth-lowest since 2001 and the 13th-lowest since 1901, with regionally severe shortages in South Peninsular India and East & Northeast India where deficits were around the mid-20s percent and the East & Northeast recorded its lowest totals since 1901.
- An unusually high number of low-pressure systems (14 systems and 77 system-days versus a normal 57) brought heavy local rains that limited an even larger national deficit but left 282 districts classified as deficient in rainfall.
- The weak June start and prolonged dry spells reduced kharif sowing area modestly, left reservoir and soil moisture below last year in several states, and raised near-term risks to rabi sowing, crop yields, rural incomes and food prices if dry conditions persist.
- IMD and climate models show El Niño strengthening and likely to last into early 2027, and the weather office now projects below-normal rainfall for October and much of the October–December period, which could constrain planting and tighten food-supply pressures despite central buffer stocks.