India’s Silver Reliance Flagged as Strategic Risk After China Tightens Exports

Overview

• India’s silver imports are estimated at USD 9.2 billion for 2025, up 44 percent year on year despite a price surge to over Rs 2.43 lakh per kg by early January 2026, with October at USD 2.7 billion and November at USD 1.1 billion.
• China shifted to a licence-based silver export regime on January 1, 2026, requiring government authorisation for shipments, which has increased supply uncertainty without constituting a ban.
• India accounted for 21.4 percent of global refined silver imports in 2024, while in FY25 exports were USD 478.4 million versus USD 4.83 billion of imports, highlighting dependence on finished metal.
• GTRI recommends expanding domestic refining and recycling, securing long-term overseas mining partnerships, and diversifying import sources to reduce strategic risk.
• Global dynamics show 55–60 percent of silver demand is industrial with solar near 15 percent, while persistent annual deficits of 200–250 million ounces and a reported USD 3.6 billion ore trade reporting gap signal fragile supply chains.