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India’s Russian Oil Imports Set to Hit Three-Year Low After New U.S. Sanctions

Refiners confront scarce non-sanctioned cargoes despite steeper Urals discounts.

Overview

  • Fresh U.S. measures targeting Rosneft and Lukoil took effect on November 21, prompting most Indian refiners to pause orders for cargoes arriving after the cutoff.
  • Trade trackers expect December imports to fall to about 600,000–650,000 barrels per day, down from roughly 1.87 million bpd in November after pre-sanctions stockpiling.
  • Reliance stopped processing Russian crude at its Jamnagar export-oriented SEZ refinery from November 20 and will redirect later-arriving Russian barrels to its domestic-focused unit.
  • Urals is being offered at up to a $7-per-barrel discount to Dated Brent for December loadings, but only about one-fifth of cargoes are from non-sanctioned sellers, leading some buyers to cautiously revisit compliant deals.
  • Public-sector refiners have largely halted spot purchases, Indian Oil and Bharat Petroleum will buy only from non-designated suppliers, banks have tightened scrutiny, and buyers are turning to the Middle East and the U.S. for alternatives.