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India’s Refiners Pull Back From Russian Crude as U.S. Sanctions Reshape Flows

Concern over OFAC exposure before the November 21 wind‑down has produced the steepest weekly drop in Russian seaborne exports since early 2024.

Overview

  • Reliance cut Russian crude to about 534,000 barrels per day in October, boosted Middle East and U.S. supplies, and is preparing to stop purchases from sanctioned entities after the wind‑down deadline.
  • Indian Oil Corporation canceled several Russian cargoes but is continuing “compliant” buys from non‑sanctioned suppliers, with executives reiterating purchases will continue if they meet rules.
  • Vessel‑tracking shows Russia’s four‑week average seaborne exports fell to 3.58 million barrels per day by November 2, with more than 380 million barrels now held at sea as refiners delay taking delivery.
  • Other Indian refiners, including MRPL and HPCL‑Mittal Energy, have suspended or paused Russian orders, and analysts expect a sharp drop in India’s direct Russian imports in December with a partial recovery via intermediaries into early 2026.
  • An EU clarification allows refineries to keep exporting fuels to Europe if Russian crude is segregated or absent from the line for 60 days, a factor shaping how Indian exporters manage product flows.