Overview

• President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian exports plus an additional penalty for its Russian oil and arms purchases, effective August 1.
• State-run refiners have delayed scheduled liftings of Russian crude and requested immediate guidance from the government on legal and compliance frameworks.
• July shipments saw Russia supplying 36% of India’s imported crude at 1.78 million barrels per day, making it the nation’s largest oil vendor.
• Analysts at Kpler say refiners could gradually reallocate purchases toward WTI, Brazilian pre-salt barrels and Middle Eastern supplies if compliance costs rise.
• Industry officials warn that replacing discounted Russian crude could increase India’s oil import bill by $3 to $6 per barrel and widen trade and current account deficits.