Overview
- An Economic Times poll of 12 economists pegs July–September GDP growth at a median 7.3% year on year, with estimates ranging from 6.9% to 7.7%.
- ICRA projects Q2 GDP at 7.0% and GVA at 7.1%, with industry set to lead on the quarter’s strongest showing in five quarters.
- Manufacturing and exports strengthened on GST-led demand and front‑loaded shipments to the US, with IIP averaging 4.1% and manufacturing output up 4.9%.
- Government capital spending stayed supportive as Centre capex rose about 30.7% year on year in Q2, while states’ capex contracted 4.6% and central non‑interest spending fell 11.2%.
- ICRA expects services GVA to slow to about 7.4% and agriculture to around 3.5% due to weaker services exports and erratic rains, and it warns growth could slip below 7% in H2 without stronger capex and clearer tariff settings.