Overview
- Economists and brokerages have lifted FY26 growth projections toward roughly 7.4%, with some as high as 7.6%, and the Chief Economic Advisor signalled at least 7%.
- Manufacturing grew about 9.1% and services neared double digits, while private consumption recovered and investment stayed firm as government spending softened.
- Analysts attribute part of the Q2 surprise to a very low deflator, a favourable base, GST rate cuts, festive stockpiling, and exports front‑loaded ahead of US tariffs, pointing to slower growth in the second half.
- Nominal GDP rose only about 8.7%, raising concerns about tax revenues, deficit ratios and broader fiscal metrics despite strong real expansion.
- The IMF graded India’s national accounts a ‘C’ and MoSPI plans to shift the base year to 2022–23 with new data sources, with revised GDP estimates due on February 27, 2026, as markets debate the case for RBI rate cuts.