Overview

• The Finance Ministry’s latest review reported real GDP up 7.8% year-on-year in April–June, with growth led by private consumption, services and manufacturing.
• Private consumption took its highest first‑quarter share of nominal GDP in 15 years, and real GVA rose 7.6% on steady manufacturing, services and agriculture.
• The government’s GST rationalisation is expected to lower the tax burden, lift consumption and improve demand visibility for firms alongside sustained public capex.
• Officials said the external sector remains resilient with services exports and remittances offsetting the merchandise trade gap and gross FDI inflows rising.
• Crisil warned steep US tariffs on Indian goods threaten exports and investment, projected CPI inflation easing to about 3.5% this fiscal, and anticipated one more RBI rate cut after 100 bps of easing earlier this year.