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India’s Q1 Earnings Growth Trails Forecast as Investors Eye Liquidity

Weak small-cap profits, sluggish technology growth paired with U.S. tariff uncertainty have shaped market calls for liquidity support.

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Overview

  • Nifty-50 earnings rose only 3% year-on-year in Q1 FY26, falling well short of the 11% growth analysts had projected and heightening downgrade risks.
  • A U.S. Federal Reserve rate pause dampened technology revenues and Trump administration tariffs undercut export competitiveness for labour-intensive sectors.
  • Motilal Oswal had branded the June quarter a ‘Crossover quarter’ as its coverage universe delivered an 11% profit increase and Nifty-50 earnings grew 8%.
  • Mid-caps led the rebound with 24% earnings growth while small-caps fell about 11%, and oil & gas, telecom, NBFCs, PSU banks, technology, cement and healthcare contributed most of the incremental gains.
  • Investors are now calling for central bank liquidity measures as beat-miss outcomes remained evenly split and EBITDA margins excluding financials widened by about 70 basis points to 17.6%.