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India’s Population Projected to Stabilize by 2080 as Fertility Falls Below Replacement

Demographers attribute the drop primarily to gains in female literacy.

Overview

  • Anil Chandran of the Indian Association for the Study of Population said India’s total fertility rate is about 1.9, down from 3.5 in 2000.
  • He said projections point to a peak near 1.8–1.9 billion around 2080, with the total staying below two billion.
  • Sample Registration System 2023 data place West Bengal’s TFR at 1.3, among the nation’s lowest alongside Tamil Nadu and just above Delhi.
  • Kerala reached replacement fertility in the late 1980s and now records about 1.5, underscoring long-running regional shifts.
  • With more people living past 60 and younger workers migrating, demographers warn of growing demand for elder-care services.