Overview
- SBI Research projects the Indian crude basket around $50 per barrel by June 2026, with interim estimates near $53.31 in March and $51.85 in June.
- India’s average crude import price fell to $59.29 per barrel on Jan. 5, its first dip below $60 since February 2021, according to official pricing data.
- The EIA expects Brent to average about $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 and to hover near that level for the year, while Goldman Sachs sees WTI averaging $53 and a sizable 2026 surplus.
- Lower prices are already trimming India’s oil import bill by an estimated $11 billion on an annualized basis for April–November 2025, with SBI estimating a modest boost to GDP, softer CPI by roughly 22 bps, and a rupee appreciation of about 3% if prices fall a further 14%.
- Geopolitical developments around Venezuela have injected uncertainty, but analysts note prices have shown limited reaction, with some market voices cautioning that any spikes so far look temporary.