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India's October GST Rises 4.6% Despite Rate Cuts, Net Growth Muted by Refund Surge

Gross receipts reflect festive demand alongside stronger import levies following the GST 2.0 overhaul.

Overview

  • Official data show gross GST collections at about ₹1.95–1.96 lakh crore in October, which largely captures September transactions.
  • Net revenue stood near ₹1.69 lakh crore as refunds jumped 39.6% year-on-year to ₹26,934 crore, limiting year-on-year net growth.
  • Domestic GST rose about 2% to ₹1.45 lakh crore, import-related GST increased 12.84% to ₹50,884 crore, and cess receipts fell to roughly ₹7,812 crore after rationalisation.
  • GST 2.0 took effect on September 22 with a shift to mainly 5% and 18% slabs plus a 40% demerit rate and the removal of cess on many items, following consumer purchase deferrals ahead of the cuts.
  • SBI Research projects FY26 GST receipts may exceed the budget estimate, while several analysts flag that elevated refunds and timing effects could pressure revenues in later months, making November data a key watch.