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India’s Monsoon Ends With 8% Surplus as IMD Flags Stalled Withdrawal and Wetter October

Stark regional contrasts defined the season with surpluses in the west–center versus a deficit in the east–northeast.

Overview

  • IMD reported all-India June–September rainfall at 108% of the long-period average, with each month posting a surplus and September around 115%.
  • Northwest India recorded 127% of its seasonal average, the highest since 2001, while central and south peninsular regions were above normal and east–northeast reached only 80%.
  • Monsoon withdrawal that started in parts of the northwest has stalled due to active low-pressure systems, with showers likely to continue into mid-October according to IMD and Skymet.
  • IMD projects October rainfall about 15% above normal nationwide and expects above-normal October–December rains over south peninsular India, with parts of the northwest likely normal to below.
  • IMD-collated reports cite 1,528 flood-related deaths this season, Madhya Pradesh closed with a 22% surplus and localized crop damage, and Delhi logged October’s ‘excess’ rain in a single day.