Overview
- The India Meteorological Department declared the southwest monsoon over on Wednesday, September 30, saying seasonal rainfall from June 1 to September 30 was about 87% of the long‑period average, a roughly 13% deficit and the fourth‑lowest season since 2001.
- Rain fell very unevenly across the country with southern peninsular India about 28% below normal, East and Northeast about 25% below normal, 282 districts flagged as deficient, and Uttar Pradesh recording an 8% surplus.
- Meteorological agencies reported a strong El Niño this month with forecasts showing a high chance it will persist into late 2026 and early 2027, and the IMD issued a probabilistic outlook that October–December rainfall is likely to be below normal for most of India.
- An ICICI Bank analysis noted a positive Indian Ocean Dipole signal that could partly offset El Niño’s drying influence but the potential offset is uncertain and not confirmed by all climate assessments.
- The shortfall has practical effects now: kharif sowing area is slightly below last year with rice acreage down about 3.6%, total live storage in 150 reservoirs stood at 130 BCM (about 71% of capacity), and authorities will be watching post‑monsoon rains, reservoir levels, and sowing updates for signs of stress in crops and water supply.