Overview
- The India Meteorological Department said on Wednesday the June–September monsoon totaled 759.4 mm, roughly 87% of the 1971–2020 long-period average, leaving a national shortfall of about 12.6–13% and marking the fourth-lowest season since 2001.
- Rainfall was uneven: south peninsular India recorded roughly a 28% deficit and east and northeast India about 25% below normal, while 282 districts ended the season with deficient rainfall.
- The season featured extreme week-to-week swings, including a 45.4% surplus followed the next week by a 51.1% deficit, producing long dry stretches that hurt sowing and soil moisture.
- Crop and water impacts are already visible: kharif sowing area was about 1.5 million hectares below last year, several major reservoirs hold less water than a year ago, and dozens of districts in Maharashtra face acute water-scarcity risk.
- Forecasters at IMD and international centres say the very strong El Niño is likely to persist into early 2027, with probabilistic forecasts pointing to below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures through October–December, a pattern that could further stress rabi planting, rural incomes and food supplies.